The Premier League is back. And that means one thing - putting my reputation on the line by predicting who stays up, who makes Europe, and who wins the league. Last season, my predictions were, in total, 66 positions out (an average of 3.3 positions per club), so I have a nice target to build on.
Before going position-by-position, I do think there will be some actual races this season. I think there will be a title race, I think the fight for the top four (and top seven) look as difficult as ever to call, and while last season’s relegated three were the weakest ever (more on that here), this season’s promoted three look much stronger. I think two of them will stay up.
So here is is, a look into the future (as this is all definitely happening) for where every Premier League side will finish this season:
1. Manchester City
While City have only made one signing you would expect to be in their first team, I don’t think they need any. Far and away the best side in the division last season. The signing of Grealish makes their attacking talent even more frightening. It’ll be closer than it was last season for sure, but if they end up getting Kane, you may as well give them the title now.
2. Chelsea
Chelsea are another side who have made one big attacking signing. Lukaku. But, like City, they really don’t need much. Thomas Tuchel transformed Chelsea when he came in last season - to the extent that they won the Champions League. I think Chelsea will run City close, I’m looking forward to seeing Chelsea play after a full pre season under Tuchel, and if they create chances like last season, Lukaku could be a contender for the Golden Boot.
3. Manchester United
Manchester United’s transfer business is annoying. I feel they need a stronger defence to become title challengers, yet their main signing of the window has been Jadon Sancho. Seeing Sancho in the Premier League will be great, but I can’t see United matching last season’s second place finish without more at the back. The reported Varane signing will serve them well to this end, but I would still feel Chelsea and City will have more about them.
4. Leicester City
If you don’t like Leicester, you haven’t seen Leicester. Last season’s FA Cup winners were so close to cracking the top four, and this season I think they have enough to do it. Soumare is a good signing, while Patson Daka looks like the Jamie Vardy successor they have been searching for. They fully deserved to beat Manchester City to lift the Community Shield, and any discussion of the present day “Big Six” has to include Leicester City.
5. Liverpool
I appreciate this is a bold call. But I can’t see Liverpool - with their squad as it stands - as finishing above any of my top four. And that’s all it comes down to. The signing of Konate, a talented CB, is what they need considering last season’s injury issues across the back line. While Van Dijk coming back from injury is a big boost, expecting him to come back and be the same player he was before his injury is a big ask. They will also miss Mane and Salah for a month to the African Cup of Nations. But, when you have five teams of real quality, one has to miss out on the Champions League. I think Liverpool will miss out.
6. Aston Villa
Aston Villa look like a side of real strength this season. They have lost Grealish, but used the money to strengthen right down the spine of their side. Tuanzebe, Buendia, Bailey, Ings. Throw in Ashley Young on a free and they have recruited very well this season. Over the last few windows Villa have been quietly moulding a very good side, and this season I think we will see the fruits of their efforts.
7. Tottenham Hotspur
I straight up think Nuno is a very good hire by Spurs. He had Wolves punching well above their weight with two seventh-placed finishes, and Spurs are a side who need to punch above their weight to finish in the top four. But I don’t think this is the season to do that. The top end of the Premier League looks strong and, if Spurs do end up losing Kane, I can’t see them being part of that.
8. Arsenal
Arsenal are doing what Arsenal do. They sign some talented youngsters, throw a big fee at someone who probably isn’t worth it, and wonder why they make no progress. There is a lot to like about this Arsenal side. Their attacking options really excite me. But - and while I respect that they give their managers time - they need more in the dugout to get back to anything near top four challengers. Another season without European football beckons.
9. Brighton and Hove Albion
If you have a mate who loves Expected Goals, Brighton are that side they bang on about. But Brighton are also the side that shows how Expected Goals are only useful up to a point. If Brighton had a reliable striker, they’d have finished in the top half and fully justified my prediction last season that they would finish ninth. Brighton are a much better side than their 16th placed showing would suggest. This season, they’ll come good - even if they haven’t yet signed a striker…
10. Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace have had a quietly good window. Andersen starred last season for Fulham, Olise is a danger man from the division below, Gallagher should add some steel to the middle of the park, and Guehi has more experience than his young age would suggest. Critics may say they were all either relegated or in the Championship last season, but that’s not strictly fair. This - and I say this with Aston Villa up in sixth - is probably my boldest prediction, but Palace will do well this year.
11. West Ham United
When you stand still in the Premier League, you go backwards. And West Ham’s business this season is standing still. Dawson was good for them last season, but converting his loan to a permanent signing is all their first team business so far. West Ham were very good last year, but their lack of business, combined with the additional pressures of European football, won’t help them. A solid, but not spectacular, mid table finish.
12. Leeds United
Leeds were honestly the last team I placed. They are here because, well, someone has to finish twelfth. Converting Harrison’s loan to a permanent deal is very good, and they’ve brought in Firpo, a Left Back from Barcelona - but aren’t a side who throw money about if they don’t need to. What I will say about Leeds is that they set up every game exactly the same way and, being a Wolves supporter and seeing Wolves do just that, eventually teams work out how to stop you. I don’t think Leeds will have any issues this season, they’ll entertain and frustrate in equal measure, but teams working them out could be something to watch towards the end of the year and into next. I want to see their Plan B.
13. Everton
I straight up have no idea what to think about Everton. On the one hand, I think their signings are pretty clever. Townsend and Begovic on free transfers are solid, and Demarai Gray at £1.7m could be fantastic business if they can get him going. On the other hand, this is Everton. And I don’t think Rafa Benitez is the man to get the best out of this side. Everton, like a lot of sides it seems, are having to reign in the spending this summer. And while they certainly won’t be in any relegation trouble, there isn’t much to suggest they will pull up any trees this season.
14. Wolverhampton Wanderers
Wolves could honestly finish anywhere between 6th and 20th. It depends on how the squad adapts to the more offensive style of play favoured by Bruno Lage, whether he gets the “three or four quality additions” he says he wants, and whether Raul Jimenez’s return to fitness anything like the player he was beforehand. As it stands though, the business is solid but not spectacular. Ait Nouri was on loan at Wolves last season and has real potential, Trincao will add something different to the Wolves attack, and switching Patricio for Sa is not bad business either. Mosquera is a wildcard with talent but is very raw. But Wolves need a CB and a CM as a minimum before the close of the window.
15. Norwich City
Norwich have almost become a hipster West Brom. Too good for The Championship, not quite good enough for the Premier League. I think that changes this season. Losing Buendia is a blow, but they have brought in Gilmour on loan from Chelsea and a double swoop on Bremen for Rashica and Sargent. Converting Gibson’s loan to a permanent deal looks solid business too. Farke will have learned from their last season in the Premier League too. It’ll be a battle - and I don’t think there is much between the sides from Norwich down - but I’d back Norwich to stay up.
16. Burnley
Burnley have Sean Dyche. That means they stay up. Next.
17. Brentford
Enter Brentford FC and welcome to the most interesting club in the Premier League. Brentford are a side for the data nerds and xG enthusiasts. They hire using ‘Moneyball’ style big data and have achieved promotion despite making huge, huge profits every year on transfer fees. Ajer is a good signing from Celtic, but they don’t need me to tell them that. They will have done their homework. Expect half of their squad to go for big fees in the next few years. And their replacements, who will be signed for peanuts. They’ll stay up too - they know what they are doing.
18. Newcastle United
Though they have reportedly agreed a fee for Joe Willock, Newcastle are yet to bring in a first team signing. That Willock deal will only put back what they had at the end of last season and, if you stand still in the Premier League, you go backwards. Steve Bruce is in his dream job but isn’t being backed this time round with funds. That all adds up to trouble. A season of struggle and I think other teams have much more about them.
19. Southampton
26 games. 20 points. For the vast majority of last season, Southampton were in relegation form. They’ve lost Ings, their main source of goals, and I think they need more than what they’ve brought in. Walcott was there last season, and a lot of responsibility rests on Adam Armstrong’s shoulders. They need him to step up and - even if he does - that may not be enough.
20. Watford
Watford came up knowing they needed to strengthen. But I’m not convinced by their business. Three not exactly prolific strikers, 34 year old Juraj Kucka, and Danny Rose. Otebo has also come in on loan from Stoke. What’s perhaps unfair is that Watford look stronger than last season’s relegated three - though that’s not saying much. I like Will Hughes, Sarr is a Premier League talent, and Deeney has always caused problems at this level. But, despite that, I can’t see anything but struggle for them this year.
The full table
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