Back in September, I predicted the final Premier League table. This is always a risk. But now the season is over, let’s see how I did:
1. Manchester City (Actual = 1st)
I expected Man City to come back strong after missing out on the title last season, and that proved to be the case. After a slow start they were exceptional and came good as predicted.
2. Liverpool (Actual = 3rd)
I expected Liverpool to be up there, and despite having a poor mid-season, they finished the season in impressive form and hit the Champions League places. Never in doubt…
3. Chelsea (Actual = 4th)
Before Tuchel came in, this looked a long shot. But Chelsea, like Liverpool, sorted themselves out and came good in the end.
4. Manchester United (Actual = 2nd)
I expected United to finish in the top four but they outperformed my expectations. They may have benefited from questionable seasons from Chelsea and Liverpool, but there is no doubt they have made progress this season under Solskjaer.
5. Arsenal (Actual = 8th)
The season Arsenal had it looked like a hugely optimistic prediction until a late run of form saw them miss out on European football on the final day. Arsenal are a side in transition, I guess I assumed that transition would have happened a bit sooner than it did.
6. Wolves (Actual = 13th)
Speaking of sides in transition… I expected Wolves to hit the ground running after heavy investment and a year without European football, but did stop short of them breaking the top four. Injuries, fatigue and experimental tactics all made their mark. A big summer ahead.
7. Tottenham (Actual = 7th)
Spurs finished exactly where I expected them to. A side with undoubted talent among their ranks, but they have always been inconsistent. Bringing back Bale couldn’t help them hit the heights they expected. Another side at a crossroads.
8. Leicester (Actual = 5th)
For long spells it looked like Leicester would surely finish in the top four. A late slump in form put paid to that. That does not take away from a fantastic season, being able to qualify again for Europe and bagging the FA Cup. Leicester always recruit well and I will hold my hands up and say I did them a disservice with predicting them 8th.
9. Brighton (Actual = 16th)
I honestly feel vindicated by my prediction of 9th for Brighton. On Expected Goals Brighton would have finished in the European places, and they are the side with the biggest gap between xG and their actual results. I know the game is not played on paper, but based on their performances this is where Brighton should have finished. If only they had a striker…
10. Everton (Actual 10th)
Despite having an elite manager in Carlo Ancelotti, Everton are still Everton. They made progress this season but have had plenty of games where they have looked bang average. If the owners invest again this summer they will want more than this next season.
11. Sheffield United (Actual = 20th)
I don’t think I was alone in predicting Sheffield United to finish lower than last season, and I don’t think I was alone in predicting them to survive comfortably. An unprecedented disaster of a season which saw second season syndrome hit like a freight train.
12. Crystal Palace (Actual = 14th)
There is never any question that a side managed by Roy Hodgson would stay up comfortably. Another side who have big decisions to make this summer. Eze has been one of my signings of the season.
13. Southampton (Actual = 15th)
I never know what to make about Southampton. They blow hot and cold. After a bright start to the season, where it looked like they were after the top four, they crashed and crashed so hard they would have been in danger of relegation if the bottom three weren’t so meek. A poor start to next season and you’ll worry about Hasenhuttl.
14. Newcastle (Actual = 12th)
I will be honest. Newcastle were predicted 14th because I didn’t see them going down, didn’t see them pulling up any trees, and I thought they would just get the points on the board. That was the case. But a strong late run of form saw a very respectable finish. Their owners need to help Steve Bruce out as he can’t keep pulling results out the bag forever.
15. Leeds (Actual = 9th)
I thought Leeds would stay up but I didn’t expect a top half finish. My issue with Bielsa is he never seems to have a plan B. He is praised for this, but that means there is a ceiling before the opposition start working you out. Next season will be interesting as teams will know exactly what to expect.
16. Aston Villa (Actual = 11th)
Villa recruited well, filled the gaps in their team which needed sorting, and more than deserved a solid mid table finish. I did not expect players like Matty Cash and Ollie Watkins to adapt to the Premier League so quickly. With a global talent pool to draw on, it’s refreshing seeing the talent is often there on your doorstep.
17. Burnley (Actual = 17th)
Burnley never spend, so I thought they would struggle. But Burnley will not go down with Sean Dyche in charge. End of discussion.
18. West Brom (Actual = 19th)
West Brom had a pretty poor squad, didn’t spend much money, and were somehow surprised that Slaven Bilic couldn’t get results. Form picked up under Big Sam, but not nearly enough to keep them up. I had them marked from the start - and won’t have been alone.
19. West Ham (Actual = 6th)
Honestly David Moyes Ham must have seen my prediction on the dressing room wall as they embarrassed me here. I thought they would struggle but they have been one of the stories of the season. Moyes himself is my manager of the season. Giving it to Pep was so lazy.
20. Fulham (Actual = 18th)
Fulham did what Fulham do. They didn’t spend £100m like last time, but they stuck to their principles and their quite limited squad just did not have enough consistency to stay up. Play it about nice enough, but you have to be able to defend.
Proof of predictions (see last edited date)
Number of correct positions - 4/20 (20%)
Total number out - 66 (average of 3.3 positions per team)
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