This week saw the conclusion of the group stage of EURO 2020, and some of the best matches of the tournament so far. The group stage culminated with an edge-of-the-seat 90 minutes in Group F where, over the course of 90 minutes, Hungary, Portugal, France and Germany provided one of the most memorable nights of international football in recent years.
Since the EUROs expanded from 16 teams to 24 teams, UEFA had to make a few tweaks to the format to ensure the correct number of teams could progress. With six groups, UEFA decided the top two would progress from each group (as in previous tournaments), and then made up the remaining positions with four of the best third-place teams giving a round 16 teams involved in the knock out stages. This format tweak - first in place for EURO 2016 - gave us all the ingredients for the what happened in Group F.
Lowering the bar
One of the big criticisms of the third place system is the way it lowers the bar. It has been the case both times under this format that three points has seen teams through to the knockout stages. Indeed, Portugal progressed in 2016 with no wins - their three points secured via three draws.
But the bar is not at its lowest. It is possible - though not exactly likely - that a team could progress as one of the better third placed sides with a single, solitary point (assuming, in at least three groups, two sides draw with each other and lose the other two games).
Three points gets you through
But putting aside the possibility and going with the record. In EURO 2016 and 2020, no side progressed with fewer than three points - and no side finishing third has secured less than three points. This gives teams a far lower target to aim for than under the old format.
The below are the number of points sides finishing in second secured at each respective EUROs:
2016 - 5, 5, 7, 6, 6, 5
2020 - 4, 3, 6, 4, 5, 4
Under the previous system (where only the top two progress) sides needed to secure at least two results - a win and a draw - from three games to progress. Indeed, 2020’s Group B is the only side where one win secured progression in second.
Under the new system, sides no longer need two results. They only need one. And this completely changes the dynamic of the group stage.
A final round feast
Needing one result changed many games from the final round of fixtures into must watch spectacles. Switzerland v. Turkey in Group A may not on the surface set the pulses racing. But both sides entered that game knowing they needed to win to stand a chance of progressing. The Swiss side were outstanding, with Shaqiri and Xhaka having fantastic games, and the end-to-end game produced a comfortable 3-0 win for Switzerland.
The games came thick and fast and showed the value of the rule change. Denmark needing a win against Russia, and getting it. Ukraine v. Austria where the winners (Austria) secured second place in the group. Croatia took on Scotland where a win for either side would send them through, and Sweden v. Poland was an absolute treat - Poland had to win but the Swedes took a 2-0 lead, before being pegged back to 2-2, and Poland pushing for the winner saw them concede a Swedish winner in injury time.
What is notable about all the above games is that none of them feature sides widely tipped to make the latter stages. The need to win opened these games up and made them some of the best games of the tournament so far.
The Group of F
And this brings me to Group F - the so called ‘Group of Death’ - featuring France, Germany, Hungary and Portugal. Going into the tournament under the old system, and this is being realistic as the other three sides could feasibly win the tournament, Hungary would not be feeling they could get the two results needed to progress.
But under the current system Hungary only need one result, one win, to get over the line. And to their credit, they nearly secured it. Portugal took until the 84th minute before breaking the deadlock, while they picked up an impressive point against France, and took Germany all the way before a late equaliser ended their tournament.
The point is Hungary’s tournament was not over the moment Portugal beat them. It gave them the confidence to take on France and Germany knowing just one win gets them over the line, and they almost got it. On another day they could well have. The mentality shift that they can get through only happened because the tournament format allowed them to think that way.
It is not perfect
But while the lower bar to progress opens up the group stage, giving more teams the opportunity to believe they can - and indeed make - the knockout rounds, that does not mean the system is perfect.
It is not clear which teams have progressed (and who they play) until all the group stage fixtures are over. This leaves some sides in an awkward position.
Take Switzerland, who rounded off Group A on four points. Four points is almost certainly enough to progress, and that turned out to be the case. But Switzerland’s final group game took place in Baku, and it was not clear whether their next destination would be Seville, Budapest, Bucharest or Glasgow (four different destinations, clear across Europe, taking place on different dates).
Though future tournaments will not have the same issue with travel, simply knowing the date of your next game is hugely important for planning and training an elite side. Switzerland did not know where they were going until 23 June - four days before the first of those potential ties was due to take place.
And while, of course, you can’t give sides clear notice of where they will play (as the best runners up simply aren’t known until all games conclude), the multiple destinations comes from ensuring no third placed side meets a side they played in the group stage in the next round. It is a frustration that there is little UEFA can do about.
And, going back to the obvious criticism, UEFA have implemented a system where a side can fail to win a single group stage game, yet make the knockout rounds, or even go on and win the tournament (as Portugal did in 2016). But the alternative is expanding the EUROs again to have only first and second placed sides progress - needing 36 teams in eight groups - which is likely to be too large a tournament when UEFA only has 55 members in total.
No dead rubbers
But while there are flaws, allowing the best third placed teams to progress does one fundamental change to the EUROs which every single football fan can get behind. That is, there are no final round games where teams have nothing to play for. Where they are going through the motions because either one side - or even both sides - have absolutely nothing to play for.
This format is a game changer for international football for one very simple reason:
Every game matters.
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