Celtic’s stalemate at Dundee United on Saturday finally confirmed the inevitable - that Rangers would win the Scottish title for a record 55th time, and Celtic would not be extending their run of titles beyond the current record of 9.
While Steven Gerrard’s Rangers side have been all but unstoppable, the narrative of Celtic’s season has been one of lurching from crisis to crisis. From being knocked out of the Champions League by lowly Ferencvaros, finishing bottom of a reasonably favourable Europa League group, to being dumped out of the League Cup at the first hurdle by Ross County.
Meanwhile their mid-season trip to Dubai saw criticism from Nicola Sturgeon - a politician taking the brave electoral step to call out one of the country’s best supported football teams shows how poor an idea this trip was.
But while Celtic fans will point the finger at recruitment, at the board, even at Neil Lennon, and though from the outside observer Celtic’s season may seem poor, the one thing missing from this equation is Celtic’s record in isolation. When compared against a juggernaut of a season by Rangers, any side would look poor. But this season Celtic have performed better than in some years where they actually won the title.
This season, Celtic’s 68 points from 32 games gives them an average PPG of 2.12. If you look back over their whole run of nine titles in a row, their PPG have been as follows:
2011–12 - 2.44
2012–13 - 2.07
2013–14 - 2.60
2014–15 - 2.42
2015–16 - 2.26
2016–17 - 2.78
2017–18 - 2.15
2018–19 - 2.28
2019–20 - 2.67 (title awarded on points per game after 30 games due to the pandemic)
2020-21 - 2.12
What these numbers show you is Celtic’s current season of 2.12 PPG is not out of order from the typical title winning form you would need to win the Scottish Premiership. In all of these seasons, Celtic’s gap to second place was between 9 points (in 2017-18 and 2018-19) and 30 points (in their own astonishing 2016-17 season).
On goals conceded, Celtic have conceded 23 in 32 games, giving an average of 0.71. Which is better than their title wins in 2012-13 and 2015-16 (0.92 and 0.81 respectively).
While on goals scored, their 65 in 32 is an average of 2.03, better than the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons (1.92 and 2.02 respectively).
It must be said at this point that the goals scored and conceded statistics, while enough to win the league in those years, those returns (and seasons) were not what would would be considered 'vintage' title wins. Nevertheless, they would usually be enough to win the league by a comfortable margin.
But all these statistics on Celtic do is illustrate just how good Rangers have been. Rangers have averaged at 2.75 points per game. Two. Point. Seven. Five. This means they have been gaining more than half a point a game over a side who themselves were on title-winning form.
Rangers went into the season aiming to end Celtic’s chances of ten titles in a row. They did that before they had even dropped ten points - before they had even conceded 10 goals. Rangers’ 8 goals conceded in 32 games averages at 0.25 goals conceded per game - comfortably better than any Celtic managed across their 9 titles (0.44 in 2014-15).
So while Celtic’s season would usually be enough to take home the title, they only put in a below average title winning season (if ever such a thing exists) in the one year they needed to go all out. Rangers, meanwhile, have reaped the benefits by putting in one of the great performances of the modern era. Their season has been as impressive as it is ridiculous and they are worthy champions - but the idea that Celtic are in crisis is perhaps overdoing it a bit.
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