A striker.
A goalkeeper.
Twelve yards.
One kick of the ball.
People would have you believe that penalty shoot outs are all to do with luck. Here’s why that is complete bollocks.
Feel the quarters
According to Instat, who looked at over 100,000 penalty kicks going back to 2009, while three quarters of penalty kicks are scored, that means around one in four aren’t.
And that shouldn’t be a massive surprise. The penalty is a free hit at goal from dead centre of the penalty box - the region where most goals are scored. Usually a striker or midfielder would take them (unless you are Rogério Ceni), and there are parts of the goal where a keeper just won’t reach if he moves after the ball is kicked.
But is that it from the striker’s point of view? Just slot it in the corners? Job done?
Of course not. We are just getting started.
Perfect game theory
Penalty shoot outs are the perfect example of game theory. Game theory is the process of modelling the strategic interaction between two or more players in a situation containing set rules and outcomes. It looks at the information players have to hand, what they know about their respective opponents, and how they act on it. And this makes penalty shoot outs fascinating.
If you are the goalkeeper, you are constantly considering whether the striker is going left or right. Is he going to blast it down the middle?
If you are the striker, you are constantly thinking what the goalkeeper is going to do. Does he dive left or right? Does he move early and telegraph his movement - after all he has to go early to hit the corners - or does he fake you out or try to put you off?
Or, perhaps more crucially, has he done his homework?
Failing to prepare
Clubs know how important penalties are. Three quarters are scored, but you don’t have a bad chance of saving one. And clubs invest in analysis of penalties before every game.
Clubs will have knowledge of every penalty going back through every players career. They know how many times the striker will gave gone left. Gone right. Blasted down the middle. They know whether he stutters his run up. Whether he focuses on the ball or the goalkeeper. They know the percentage chance of every outcome.
And that means the goalkeeper knows it too.
When Norwich City knocked Spurs out of the FA Cup on penalties in 2019-20, Norwich keeper Tim Krul had a list of Spurs penalty takers on his water bottle. He also had the direction they are most likely to strike the ball. Krul saved two penalties in the shoot out.
This is nothing new for Krul. He was brought on by the Netherlands at the 2014 World Cup towards the end of extra time in their quarter final against Costa Rica. Krul went the right way every time and saved two of Costa Rica’s penalties. He does his homework.
Jordan Pickford is also a keeper who does his homework. He had the names of Italy’s goalkeepers on his water bottle for the EURO final - and he saved two penalties during the shoot out. He does his homework.
But this strategy isn’t exactly watertight, as former Rangers goalkeeper Wes Foderingham explains what happened in their 2016 Scottish Cup semi-final against bitter rivals Celtic:
“I’ve gone through all the penalties with Jim [Stewart]. Gone through all the penalty takers. Jim has wrote them down on a bottle and put the bottle in the goal. I had the bottle in the goal with me for the game. I put my towel over it because obviously the boys coming in sometimes take your bottle and have a drink and I didn’t want anyone to see what was on there. Penalties now. I’ve got the bottle and whacked it by the side of the goal. Craig Gordon is obviously in goal for Celtic and he’s worked with Jim at Scotland so he knows what he does with the water bottle, so he’s picked my bottle up and launched it! He’s picked my bottle up and launched it! I didn’t see him launch the bottle. I am looking around for this bottle and can’t see it and one of the ball boys has said ‘he’s launched your bottle’ I’ve turned around to look at Jim and he’s going absolutely mental on the sidelines as he has seen what was happened and they are shouting at a ball boy to get this water bottle back but in fairness, I had literally studied those notes the night before so I didn’t really need the bottle!”
Rangers won the shoot out 5-4. But Gordon found a way to try and get one advantage and try to use it to his favour.
All in the mind
And this brings me back to game theory. Now, put yourself in the position of the striker. You have your set penalty routine. You place the ball. Four steps back. Two to the left. Wait for the whistle. Breathe in. Out. In. Out. Look at the ball. Three step run up. Low, hard, to the left. Old faithful never lets you down.
Or does it?
Because you know the keeper knows which way you are going. You do this every time. He knows you place the ball. You take four steps back. Two to the left. You wait for the whistle. You breathe in. Out. In. Out. You look at the ball. You take a three step run up. It’s low, hard, to the left. Old faithful never lets you down. And he’s going to dive that way.
And if you don’t believe me, look at his water bottle.
The keeper knows your routine.
So do you mix it up? Do you go to the right? Do you hit it down the middle? Do you take one more breath? A four step run up? A stutter? Maybe five steps back? Do you hit it high and to the right?
Or do you stick to the old faithful?
But it’s not just about goalkeepers knowing the way strikers hit it. Strikers also do their homework on goalkeepers. They know whether they mostly go right, left, whether they try and fake out the striker, whether they have any favourite techniques to psyche them up for the shoot out.
And if your old faithful is low, hard, to the left. And you know the keeper dives left two thirds of the time. Are you going to stick with it?
This is game theory. Penalties have a set rule - you kick the ball once. And a set outcome - you score, or you don’t. There is a good chance of you scoring, but when a striker steps up he has endless stats and considerations running through his head. The goalkeeper knows which way he is likely to go. But is that the way he will go?
And this is why it is not luck. It is psychology.
Is your luck in?
But what if someone has never taken a penalty before? What if there is nothing to go on? What if this is purely luck?
Step forward Bukayo Saka.
The first (and only) penalty Saka has taken in his senior career was the one saved by Donnarumma to round off the penalty shoot out in the EUROs final.
While it has been written off as naïve by Southgate to send forward Saka for such a crucial kick - that he should have sent more senior players like Jack Grealish forward - I take the opposite view.
Sending forward Saka was Southgate being very clever, stacking the deck in his favour and throwing down a wildcard. The last penalty of the shoot out is one that must be scored. To either take you into sudden death, or to lift the trophy. You need to stack the deck as far in your favour as you can.
What has Donnarumma got to work with? Nothing.
What did Saka have to work with? Every senior penalty save Donnarumma has ever made.
Donnarumma was fortunate - perhaps a little lucky - to have gone the right way in the shoot out. But Southgate knows how shoot outs work, and he stacked the deck in his favour.
And on another day, it probably would have worked.
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